Please wait a few seconds ...

This plot shows the simulated Present Value.

This plot shows the simulated Net Present Value, when the current share-price is .

This plot shows the simulated Net Present Value Ratio, when the current share-price is .

This plot shows how different share-prices would impact the Net Present Value.

The x-axis shows a range of share-prices around the current share-price of , which is marked as a dashed blue line.

The red box at the bottom shows the probability of loss if the current share-price is .

This plot shows how different share-prices would impact the Net Present Value Ratio.

The x-axis shows a range of share-prices around the current share-price of , which is marked as a dashed blue line.

The red box at the bottom shows the probability of loss if the current share-price is .

This plot shows the probability distributions for individual simulation years.

This plot shows the probability distributions that are common for all simulation years.

Help!

This model simulates the Present Value (PV) of a company to long-term shareholders, where the excess cash and all future earnings are assumed to be paid out as dividends. The model also simulates the Net Present Value (NPV) and NPV Ratio.

This model does NOT simulate future share-prices. Instead the simulated earnings for the final year are assumed to grow forever so they are used to calculate Terminal Values. If you want to simulate future share-prices, then you should use another model instead.

Docs Related Models

Sally Beauty / Hist.Data / Zero Real Growth (SBH)

Present Value of Stock using Terminal Values (Model PV‑STK‑TV)

@SimSim June 14, 2025

Help
Copy
Paste
Restore

EBITDA
FCF
Net Income

Title

Keywords

Stock Symbol

Comment

Remove Outliers

Current Share-Price

Current Shares

Currency

Excess Cash

Show Per-Share

Earnings - Year 1

Note

Selected

Copy
Paste
Restore
Tweak
Smooth

Constant

Uniform Low

Uniform High

Normal Mean

Normal Std

User Data

116.38m ; 0%
118.13m ; 0.3729%
119.89m ; 0.678%
121.65m ; 0.8514%
123.41m ; 0.8671%
125.16m ; 0.7853%
126.92m ; 0.6106%
128.68m ; 0.5294%
130.44m ; 0.4338%
132.2m ; 0.2706%
133.95m ; 0.1008%
135.71m ; 0.0382%
137.47m ; 0%
146.26m ; 0%
148.01m ; 0.03388%
149.77m ; 0.1764%
151.53m ; 0.3243%
153.29m ; 0.4249%
155.04m ; 0.5435%
156.8m ; 0.587%
158.56m ; 0.5349%
160.32m ; 0.6354%
162.07m ; 0.8188%
163.83m ; 0.8826%
165.59m ; 0.9001%
167.35m ; 0.8554%
169.11m ; 0.691%
170.86m ; 0.5665%
172.62m ; 0.5092%
174.38m ; 0.401%
176.14m ; 0.2491%
177.89m ; 0.1823%
179.65m ; 0.2694%
181.41m ; 0.3683%
183.17m ; 0.4993%
184.92m ; 0.6381%
186.68m ; 0.6248%
188.44m ; 0.5357%
190.2m ; 0.4213%
191.95m ; 0.2429%
193.71m ; 0.1097%
195.47m ; 0.1057%
197.23m ; 0.2075%
198.98m ; 0.332%
200.74m ; 0.3987%
202.5m ; 0.5456%
204.26m ; 0.7468%
206.02m ; 0.8861%
207.77m ; 0.9424%
209.53m ; 1.1%
211.29m ; 1.233%
213.05m ; 1.42%
214.8m ; 1.655%
216.56m ; 1.749%
218.32m ; 1.534%
220.08m ; 1.4%
221.83m ; 1.398%
223.59m ; 1.504%
225.35m ; 1.67%
227.11m ; 1.966%
228.86m ; 2.197%
230.62m ; 2.433%
232.38m ; 2.55%
234.14m ; 2.651%
235.89m ; 2.761%
237.65m ; 2.896%
239.41m ; 2.995%
241.17m ; 3.072%
242.93m ; 3.067%
244.68m ; 2.995%
246.44m ; 2.958%
248.2m ; 3.012%
249.96m ; 2.978%
251.71m ; 2.903%
253.47m ; 2.619%
255.23m ; 2.118%
256.99m ; 1.546%
258.74m ; 1.172%
260.5m ; 0.9046%
262.26m ; 0.858%
264.02m ; 0.8042%
265.77m ; 0.7653%
267.53m ; 0.7543%
269.29m ; 0.8194%
271.05m ; 0.9702%
272.8m ; 1.157%
274.56m ; 1.298%
276.32m ; 1.35%
278.08m ; 1.209%
279.84m ; 0.9887%
281.59m ; 0.7147%
283.35m ; 0.5026%
285.11m ; 0.3342%
286.87m ; 0.1958%
288.62m ; 0.0941%
290.38m ; 0%

Interpolate

Earnings - Year 2

Note

Selected

Copy
Paste
Restore
Tweak
Smooth

Constant

Uniform Low

Uniform High

Normal Mean

Normal Std

User Data

200m ; 5%
500m ; 80%
800m ; 15%

Interpolate

Earnings - Year 3

Note

Selected

Copy
Paste
Restore
Tweak
Smooth

Constant

Uniform Low

Uniform High

Normal Mean

Normal Std

User Data

200m ; 5%
500m ; 80%
800m ; 15%

Interpolate

Earnings - Year 4

Note

Selected

Copy
Paste
Restore
Tweak
Smooth

Constant

Uniform Low

Uniform High

Normal Mean

Normal Std

User Data

200m ; 5%
500m ; 80%
800m ; 15%

Interpolate

Earnings - Year 5

Note

Selected

Copy
Paste
Restore
Tweak
Smooth

Constant

Uniform Low

Uniform High

Normal Mean

Normal Std

User Data

200m ; 5%
500m ; 80%
800m ; 15%

Interpolate

Earnings - Year 6

Note

Selected

Copy
Paste
Restore
Tweak
Smooth

Constant

Uniform Low

Uniform High

Normal Mean

Normal Std

User Data

200m ; 5%
500m ; 80%
800m ; 15%

Interpolate

Earnings - Year 7

Note

Selected

Copy
Paste
Restore
Tweak
Smooth

Constant

Uniform Low

Uniform High

Normal Mean

Normal Std

User Data

200m ; 5%
500m ; 80%
800m ; 15%

Interpolate

Earnings - Year 8

Note

Selected

Copy
Paste
Restore
Tweak
Smooth

Constant

Uniform Low

Uniform High

Normal Mean

Normal Std

User Data

200m ; 5%
500m ; 80%
800m ; 15%

Interpolate

Earnings - Year 9

Note

Selected

Copy
Paste
Restore
Tweak
Smooth

Constant

Uniform Low

Uniform High

Normal Mean

Normal Std

User Data

200m ; 5%
500m ; 80%
800m ; 15%

Interpolate

Earnings - Year 10

Note

Selected

Copy
Paste
Restore
Tweak
Smooth

Constant

Uniform Low

Uniform High

Normal Mean

Normal Std

User Data

200m ; 5%
500m ; 80%
800m ; 15%

Interpolate

Terminal Growth

Note

Selected

Copy
Paste
Restore
Tweak
Smooth

Constant

Uniform Low

Uniform High

Normal Mean

Normal Std

User Data

0% ; 15%
2% ; 60%
4% ; 25%

Interpolate

Discount Rate

Note

Selected

Copy
Paste
Restore
Tweak
Smooth

Constant

Uniform Low

Uniform High

Normal Mean

Normal Std

User Data

7% ; 15%
10% ; 60%
13% ; 25%

Interpolate

Tax-Rate Dividends

Note

Selected

Copy
Paste
Restore
Tweak
Smooth

Constant

Uniform Low

Uniform High

Normal Mean

Normal Std

User Data

0% ; 20%
25% ; 65%
40% ; 15%

Interpolate

You can allow others to view, run and copy a simulation. Only the author can save. Data in this tab is not visible to others.

Level

Handles

E-mails

E-mail Domains

This model is a BETA-version!

It may not be fully tested and its features may change in the future.
If you have great ideas for improving this model then please contact us.

Copy
Paste

Copy
Paste

Restore

Copy
Paste

Restore
Tweak
Smooth

Copy
Paste

Restore
Tweak
Smooth

Push Left
Push Right

Tweak Dist

Multiply

Add

Min

Max

Digits

Smooth