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This plot shows the simulated Present Value.

This plot shows the simulated Net Present Value, when the current share-price is .

This plot shows the simulated Net Present Value Ratio, when the current share-price is .

This plot shows how different share-prices would impact the Net Present Value.

The x-axis shows a range of share-prices around the current share-price of , which is marked as a dashed blue line.

The red box at the bottom shows the probability of loss if the current share-price is .

This plot shows how different share-prices would impact the Net Present Value Ratio.

The x-axis shows a range of share-prices around the current share-price of , which is marked as a dashed blue line.

The red box at the bottom shows the probability of loss if the current share-price is .

This plot shows the probability distributions for individual simulation years.

This plot shows the probability distributions that are common for all simulation years.

Help!

This model simulates the Present Value (PV) of a company to long-term shareholders, where the excess cash and all future earnings are assumed to be paid out as dividends. The model also simulates the Net Present Value (NPV) and NPV Ratio.

This model does NOT simulate future share-prices. Instead the simulated earnings for the final year are assumed to grow forever so they are used to calculate Terminal Values. If you want to simulate future share-prices, then you should use another model instead.

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Ulta Beauty / High Earnings Growth 5Y (ULTA)

Present Value of Stock using Terminal Values (Model PV‑STK‑TV)

@SimSim 56 days ago

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EBITDA
FCF
Net Income

Current Share-Price

Current Shares

Excess Cash or Debt

Currency

Earnings - Year 1

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278.71m ; 0%
289.4m ; 0.5567%
300.09m ; 0.7265%
310.78m ; 0.6842%
321.47m ; 0.4299%
332.16m ; 0.06989%
342.84m ; 0%
353.53m ; 0.02487%
364.22m ; 0.3249%
374.91m ; 0.6254%
385.6m ; 0.7174%
396.29m ; 0.6008%
406.98m ; 0.2757%
417.66m ; 0%
428.35m ; 0%
439.04m ; 0.09177%
449.73m ; 0.3736%
460.42m ; 0.625%
471.11m ; 0.6761%
481.79m ; 0.5269%
492.48m ; 0.1942%
503.17m ; 0%
631.43m ; 0%
642.12m ; 0.03038%
652.81m ; 0.2422%
663.5m ; 0.5114%
674.19m ; 0.6501%
684.88m ; 0.5896%
695.56m ; 0.33%
706.25m ; 0.1274%
716.94m ; 0.2021%
727.63m ; 0.4296%
738.32m ; 0.6364%
749.01m ; 0.6382%
759.7m ; 0.435%
770.38m ; 0.4206%
781.07m ; 0.6267%
791.76m ; 1.308%
802.45m ; 1.84%
813.14m ; 2.237%
823.83m ; 2.387%
834.52m ; 2.892%
845.2m ; 3.176%
855.89m ; 3.835%
866.58m ; 4.026%
877.27m ; 3.699%
887.96m ; 3.293%
898.65m ; 2.385%
909.33m ; 2.027%
920.02m ; 1.8%
930.71m ; 1.906%
941.4m ; 1.734%
952.09m ; 1.157%
962.78m ; 0.6321%
973.47m ; 0.4414%
984.15m ; 0.8356%
994.84m ; 1.686%
1.0055b ; 2.504%
1.0162b ; 3.26%
1.0269b ; 3.74%
1.0376b ; 3.857%
1.0483b ; 3.561%
1.059b ; 2.887%
1.0697b ; 1.759%
1.0804b ; 0.9445%
1.091b ; 0.2673%
1.1017b ; 0.1067%
1.1124b ; 0.2873%
1.1231b ; 0.3927%
1.1338b ; 0.568%
1.1445b ; 0.5395%
1.1552b ; 0.3396%
1.1659b ; 0.244%
1.1765b ; 0.1847%
1.1872b ; 0.3047%
1.1979b ; 0.3917%
1.2086b ; 0.5917%
1.2193b ; 0.764%
1.23b ; 0.6956%
1.2407b ; 1.11%
1.2514b ; 1.536%
1.2621b ; 1.915%
1.2727b ; 2.542%
1.2834b ; 2.596%
1.2941b ; 2.217%
1.3048b ; 1.777%
1.3155b ; 0.9626%
1.3262b ; 0.4637%
1.3369b ; 0%

Earnings - Year 2

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303.82m ; 0%
317.71m ; 0.06879%
331.6m ; 0.2171%
345.49m ; 0.4786%
359.38m ; 0.6284%
373.26m ; 0.5846%
387.15m ; 0.3978%
401.04m ; 0.1707%
414.93m ; 0.1122%
428.81m ; 0.2149%
442.7m ; 0.4111%
456.59m ; 0.5366%
470.48m ; 0.5118%
484.37m ; 0.3854%
498.25m ; 0.2113%
512.14m ; 0.1398%
526.03m ; 0.207%
539.92m ; 0.3769%
553.81m ; 0.5226%
567.69m ; 0.5424%
581.58m ; 0.4411%
595.47m ; 0.2454%
609.36m ; 0.07154%
623.25m ; 0.009941%
637.13m ; 0%
692.68m ; 0%
706.57m ; 0.00251%
720.46m ; 0.01611%
734.35m ; 0.05327%
748.24m ; 0.09645%
762.12m ; 0.1315%
776.01m ; 0.1812%
789.9m ; 0.2784%
803.79m ; 0.4136%
817.68m ; 0.509%
831.56m ; 0.5092%
845.45m ; 0.4244%
859.34m ; 0.3645%
873.23m ; 0.4276%
887.12m ; 0.598%
901m ; 0.7729%
914.89m ; 0.9118%
928.78m ; 1.057%
942.67m ; 1.346%
956.55m ; 1.77%
970.44m ; 2.243%
984.33m ; 2.602%
998.22m ; 2.849%
1.0121b ; 3.087%
1.026b ; 3.298%
1.0399b ; 3.523%
1.0538b ; 3.505%
1.0677b ; 3.235%
1.0815b ; 2.761%
1.0954b ; 2.333%
1.1093b ; 2.054%
1.1232b ; 1.965%
1.1371b ; 1.899%
1.151b ; 1.795%
1.1649b ; 1.662%
1.1788b ; 1.623%
1.1926b ; 1.745%
1.2065b ; 2.014%
1.2204b ; 2.367%
1.2343b ; 2.693%
1.2482b ; 2.887%
1.2621b ; 2.824%
1.276b ; 2.527%
1.2899b ; 2.013%
1.3038b ; 1.442%
1.3176b ; 0.9515%
1.3315b ; 0.6375%
1.3454b ; 0.4919%
1.3593b ; 0.4897%
1.3732b ; 0.5307%
1.3871b ; 0.5716%
1.401b ; 0.6179%
1.4149b ; 0.6732%
1.4287b ; 0.7395%
1.4426b ; 0.8434%
1.4565b ; 0.9067%
1.4704b ; 0.9664%
1.4843b ; 1.022%
1.4982b ; 1.125%
1.5121b ; 1.293%
1.526b ; 1.497%
1.5398b ; 1.63%
1.5537b ; 1.673%
1.5676b ; 1.526%
1.5815b ; 1.258%
1.5954b ; 0.9382%
1.6093b ; 0.6295%
1.6232b ; 0.3725%
1.6371b ; 0.2011%
1.6509b ; 0.08491%
1.6648b ; 0.03345%
1.6787b ; 0%

Earnings - Year 3

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349.4m ; 0%
365.4m ; 0.0688%
381.3m ; 0.217%
397.3m ; 0.479%
413.3m ; 0.628%
429.2m ; 0.585%
445.2m ; 0.398%
461.2m ; 0.171%
477.2m ; 0.112%
493.1m ; 0.215%
509.1m ; 0.411%
525.1m ; 0.537%
541.1m ; 0.512%
557m ; 0.385%
573m ; 0.211%
589m ; 0.14%
604.9m ; 0.207%
620.9m ; 0.377%
636.9m ; 0.523%
652.8m ; 0.542%
668.8m ; 0.441%
684.8m ; 0.245%
700.8m ; 0.0715%
716.7m ; 0.00994%
732.7m ; 0%
796.6m ; 0%
812.6m ; 0.00251%
828.5m ; 0.0161%
844.5m ; 0.0533%
860.5m ; 0.0965%
876.4m ; 0.132%
892.4m ; 0.181%
908.4m ; 0.278%
924.4m ; 0.414%
940.3m ; 0.509%
956.3m ; 0.509%
972.3m ; 0.424%
988.2m ; 0.365%
1.004b ; 0.428%
1.02b ; 0.598%
1.036b ; 0.773%
1.052b ; 0.912%
1.068b ; 1.06%
1.084b ; 1.35%
1.1b ; 1.77%
1.116b ; 2.24%
1.132b ; 2.6%
1.148b ; 2.85%
1.164b ; 3.09%
1.18b ; 3.3%
1.196b ; 3.52%
1.212b ; 3.51%
1.228b ; 3.24%
1.244b ; 2.76%
1.26b ; 2.33%
1.276b ; 2.05%
1.292b ; 1.97%
1.308b ; 1.9%
1.324b ; 1.8%
1.34b ; 1.66%
1.356b ; 1.62%
1.371b ; 1.75%
1.387b ; 2.01%
1.403b ; 2.37%
1.419b ; 2.69%
1.435b ; 2.89%
1.451b ; 2.82%
1.467b ; 2.53%
1.483b ; 2.01%
1.499b ; 1.44%
1.515b ; 0.952%
1.531b ; 0.638%
1.547b ; 0.492%
1.563b ; 0.49%
1.579b ; 0.531%
1.595b ; 0.572%
1.611b ; 0.618%
1.627b ; 0.673%
1.643b ; 0.74%
1.659b ; 0.843%
1.675b ; 0.907%
1.691b ; 0.966%
1.707b ; 1.02%
1.723b ; 1.13%
1.739b ; 1.29%
1.755b ; 1.5%
1.771b ; 1.63%
1.787b ; 1.67%
1.803b ; 1.53%
1.819b ; 1.26%
1.835b ; 0.938%
1.851b ; 0.63%
1.867b ; 0.373%
1.883b ; 0.201%
1.899b ; 0.0849%
1.915b ; 0.0335%
1.931b ; 0%

Earnings - Year 4

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401.8m ; 0%
420.2m ; 0.0688%
438.5m ; 0.217%
456.9m ; 0.479%
475.3m ; 0.628%
493.6m ; 0.585%
512m ; 0.398%
530.4m ; 0.171%
548.8m ; 0.112%
567.1m ; 0.215%
585.5m ; 0.411%
603.9m ; 0.537%
622.3m ; 0.512%
640.6m ; 0.385%
659m ; 0.211%
677.4m ; 0.14%
695.6m ; 0.207%
714m ; 0.377%
732.4m ; 0.523%
750.7m ; 0.542%
769.1m ; 0.441%
787.5m ; 0.245%
805.9m ; 0.0715%
824.2m ; 0.00994%
842.6m ; 0%
916.1m ; 0%
934.5m ; 0.00251%
952.8m ; 0.0161%
971.2m ; 0.0533%
989.6m ; 0.0965%
1.008b ; 0.132%
1.026b ; 0.181%
1.045b ; 0.278%
1.063b ; 0.414%
1.081b ; 0.509%
1.1b ; 0.509%
1.118b ; 0.424%
1.136b ; 0.365%
1.155b ; 0.428%
1.173b ; 0.598%
1.191b ; 0.773%
1.21b ; 0.912%
1.228b ; 1.06%
1.247b ; 1.35%
1.265b ; 1.77%
1.283b ; 2.24%
1.302b ; 2.6%
1.32b ; 2.85%
1.339b ; 3.09%
1.357b ; 3.3%
1.375b ; 3.52%
1.394b ; 3.51%
1.412b ; 3.24%
1.431b ; 2.76%
1.449b ; 2.33%
1.467b ; 2.05%
1.486b ; 1.97%
1.504b ; 1.9%
1.523b ; 1.8%
1.541b ; 1.66%
1.559b ; 1.62%
1.577b ; 1.75%
1.595b ; 2.01%
1.613b ; 2.37%
1.632b ; 2.69%
1.65b ; 2.89%
1.669b ; 2.82%
1.687b ; 2.53%
1.705b ; 2.01%
1.724b ; 1.44%
1.742b ; 0.952%
1.761b ; 0.638%
1.779b ; 0.492%
1.797b ; 0.49%
1.816b ; 0.531%
1.834b ; 0.572%
1.853b ; 0.618%
1.871b ; 0.673%
1.889b ; 0.74%
1.908b ; 0.843%
1.926b ; 0.907%
1.945b ; 0.966%
1.963b ; 1.02%
1.981b ; 1.13%
2b ; 1.29%
2.018b ; 1.5%
2.037b ; 1.63%
2.055b ; 1.67%
2.073b ; 1.53%
2.092b ; 1.26%
2.11b ; 0.938%
2.129b ; 0.63%
2.147b ; 0.373%
2.165b ; 0.201%
2.184b ; 0.0849%
2.202b ; 0.0335%
2.221b ; 0%

Earnings - Year 5

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462.1m ; 0%
483.2m ; 0.0688%
504.3m ; 0.217%
525.4m ; 0.479%
546.6m ; 0.628%
567.6m ; 0.585%
588.8m ; 0.398%
610m ; 0.171%
631.1m ; 0.112%
652.2m ; 0.215%
673.3m ; 0.411%
694.5m ; 0.537%
715.6m ; 0.512%
736.7m ; 0.385%
757.9m ; 0.211%
779m ; 0.14%
799.9m ; 0.207%
821.1m ; 0.377%
842.3m ; 0.523%
863.3m ; 0.542%
884.5m ; 0.441%
905.6m ; 0.245%
926.8m ; 0.0715%
947.8m ; 0.00994%
969m ; 0%
1.054b ; 0%
1.075b ; 0.00251%
1.096b ; 0.0161%
1.117b ; 0.0533%
1.138b ; 0.0965%
1.159b ; 0.132%
1.18b ; 0.181%
1.202b ; 0.278%
1.222b ; 0.414%
1.243b ; 0.509%
1.265b ; 0.509%
1.286b ; 0.424%
1.306b ; 0.365%
1.328b ; 0.428%
1.349b ; 0.598%
1.37b ; 0.773%
1.392b ; 0.912%
1.412b ; 1.06%
1.434b ; 1.35%
1.455b ; 1.77%
1.475b ; 2.24%
1.497b ; 2.6%
1.518b ; 2.85%
1.54b ; 3.09%
1.561b ; 3.3%
1.581b ; 3.52%
1.603b ; 3.51%
1.624b ; 3.24%
1.646b ; 2.76%
1.666b ; 2.33%
1.687b ; 2.05%
1.709b ; 1.97%
1.73b ; 1.9%
1.751b ; 1.8%
1.772b ; 1.66%
1.793b ; 1.62%
1.814b ; 1.75%
1.834b ; 2.01%
1.855b ; 2.37%
1.877b ; 2.69%
1.898b ; 2.89%
1.919b ; 2.82%
1.94b ; 2.53%
1.961b ; 2.01%
1.983b ; 1.44%
2.003b ; 0.952%
2.025b ; 0.638%
2.046b ; 0.492%
2.067b ; 0.49%
2.088b ; 0.531%
2.109b ; 0.572%
2.131b ; 0.618%
2.152b ; 0.673%
2.172b ; 0.74%
2.194b ; 0.843%
2.215b ; 0.907%
2.237b ; 0.966%
2.257b ; 1.02%
2.278b ; 1.13%
2.3b ; 1.29%
2.321b ; 1.5%
2.343b ; 1.63%
2.363b ; 1.67%
2.384b ; 1.53%
2.406b ; 1.26%
2.426b ; 0.938%
2.448b ; 0.63%
2.469b ; 0.373%
2.49b ; 0.201%
2.512b ; 0.0849%
2.532b ; 0.0335%
2.554b ; 0%

Earnings - Year 6

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Earnings - Year 7

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Earnings - Year 8

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Earnings - Year 9

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Earnings - Year 10

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Terminal Growth

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Discount Rate

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Tax-Rate Dividends

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This model is a BETA-version!

It may not be fully tested and its features may change in the future.
If you have great ideas for improving this model then please contact us.

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