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This plot shows the Return on Intrinsic Value (ROIV), when making a share buyback for at the current share-price of .

ROIV is invalid when the intrinsic value is zero or negative. ROB also works in those cases.

The red box at the bottom shows the probability of loss, if a share buyback is made now at the current share-price of .

This plot shows the Return on Buyback (ROB), when making a share buyback for at the current share-price of .

The red box at the bottom shows the probability of loss, if a share buyback is made now at the current share-price of .

This plot shows how different share-prices at the time of the share buyback, would impact the Return on Intrinsic Value (ROIV), when making a share buyback for .

ROIV is invalid when the intrinsic value is zero or negative. ROB also works in those cases.

The x-axis shows a range of share-prices around the current share-price of , which is marked as a dashed blue line.

The red box at the bottom shows the probability of loss, if a share buyback is made now at the current share-price of .

This plot shows how different share-prices at the time of the share buyback, would impact the Return on Buyback (ROB), when making a share buyback for .

The x-axis shows a range of share-prices around the current share-price of , which is marked as a dashed blue line.

The red box at the bottom shows the probability of loss, if a share buyback is made now at the current share-price of .

This plot shows the probability distributions for the Earnings in future years.

These plots show probability distributions for the simulations.

Help!

This model simulates the gain/loss to long-term shareholders from making a single share buyback, compared to making a dividend payout for the same amount of money. All future earnings are assumed to be paid out as dividends.

Share-prices are NOT simulated. Instead the simulated earnings for the final year are assumed to grow forever so they are used to calculate Terminal Values. If you want to simulate future share-prices instead, then you should use another model.

The capital gains tax is irrelevant because this model does not simulate future share-prices. And the dividend tax is also ignored, because it cancels out in the valuation formulas.

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Foot Locker / Hist.Data / Zero Real Growth (FL)

Share Buyback vs. Dividend using Terminal Values (Model SB‑DIV‑TV)

@SimSim 26 days ago

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EBITDA
FCF
Net Income

Current Share-Price

Current Shares

Currency

Buyback Amount

Buyback Tax-Rate

Excess Cash

Borrow Amount

Interest Rate Borrow

Earnings - Year 1

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-211.66m ; 0%
-198.64m ; 0.1966%
-185.62m ; 0.2745%
-172.6m ; 0.349%
-159.58m ; 0.4282%
-146.56m ; 0.5143%
-133.54m ; 0.5845%
-120.52m ; 0.6057%
-107.5m ; 0.5653%
-94.476m ; 0.4765%
-81.456m ; 0.3614%
-68.436m ; 0.2418%
-55.416m ; 0.1388%
-42.396m ; 0.06796%
-29.376m ; 0.03356%
-16.356m ; 0.03387%
-3.3359m ; 0.07114%
9.684m ; 0.1524%
22.704m ; 0.2778%
35.724m ; 0.4304%
48.744m ; 0.5824%
61.764m ; 0.7141%
74.784m ; 0.8264%
87.804m ; 0.9317%
100.82m ; 1.034%
113.84m ; 1.111%
126.86m ; 1.124%
139.88m ; 1.044%
152.9m ; 0.8865%
165.92m ; 0.7104%
178.94m ; 0.5861%
191.96m ; 0.558%
204.98m ; 0.6354%
218m ; 0.7972%
231.02m ; 0.9943%
244.04m ; 1.164%
257.06m ; 1.265%
270.08m ; 1.312%
283.1m ; 1.354%
296.12m ; 1.431%
309.14m ; 1.553%
322.16m ; 1.721%
335.18m ; 1.937%
348.2m ; 2.187%
361.22m ; 2.428%
374.24m ; 2.596%
387.26m ; 2.638%
400.28m ; 2.53%
413.3m ; 2.29%
426.32m ; 1.993%
439.34m ; 1.756%
452.36m ; 1.665%
465.38m ; 1.709%
478.4m ; 1.788%
491.42m ; 1.817%
504.44m ; 1.82%
517.46m ; 1.907%
530.48m ; 2.155%
543.5m ; 2.524%
556.52m ; 2.871%
569.54m ; 3.064%
582.56m ; 3.064%
595.58m ; 2.932%
608.6m ; 2.764%
621.62m ; 2.606%
634.64m ; 2.432%
647.66m ; 2.184%
660.68m ; 1.844%
673.7m ; 1.463%
686.72m ; 1.13%
699.74m ; 0.9059%
712.76m ; 0.7909%
725.78m ; 0.7408%
738.8m ; 0.7014%
751.82m ; 0.6391%
764.84m ; 0.5527%
777.86m ; 0.4622%
790.88m ; 0.3872%
803.9m ; 0.3332%
816.92m ; 0.297%
829.94m ; 0.2774%
842.96m ; 0.2786%
855.98m ; 0.2995%
869m ; 0.3278%
882.02m ; 0.3442%
895.04m ; 0.3343%
908.06m ; 0.2953%
921.08m ; 0.2365%
934.1m ; 0.1745%
947.12m ; 0.1264%
960.14m ; 0.103%
973.16m ; 0.1053%
986.18m ; 0.127%
999.2m ; 0.1575%
1.0122b ; 0.1831%
1.0252b ; 0.1905%
1.0383b ; 0.1726%
1.0513b ; 0.134%
1.0643b ; 0.08824%
1.0773b ; 0%

Earnings - Year 2

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Earnings - Year 3

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Earnings - Year 4

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Earnings - Year 5

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Earnings - Year 6

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Earnings - Year 7

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Earnings - Year 8

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Earnings - Year 9

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Earnings - Year 10

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Terminal Growth

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Discount Rate

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-6.31% ; 0%
-6% ; 0.0834%
-5.7% ; 0.131%
-5.39% ; 0.191%
-5.09% ; 0.259%
-4.786% ; 0.33%
-4.481% ; 0.395%
-4.176% ; 0.444%
-3.872% ; 0.469%
-3.567% ; 0.469%
-3.263% ; 0.451%
-2.958% ; 0.428%
-2.653% ; 0.414%
-2.349% ; 0.415%
-2.044% ; 0.433%
-1.739% ; 0.466%
-1.435% ; 0.515%
-1.13% ; 0.586%
-0.825% ; 0.685%
-0.521% ; 0.811%
-0.216% ; 0.954%
0.088% ; 1.09%
0.393% ; 1.21%
0.698% ; 1.3%
1.002% ; 1.36%
1.307% ; 1.4%
1.612% ; 1.45%
1.916% ; 1.52%
2.221% ; 1.62%
2.526% ; 1.73%
2.83% ; 1.85%
3.135% ; 1.93%
3.439% ; 1.95%
3.744% ; 1.89%
4.049% ; 1.77%
4.353% ; 1.62%
4.658% ; 1.47%
4.963% ; 1.34%
5.267% ; 1.24%
5.572% ; 1.17%
5.877% ; 1.1%
6.181% ; 1.04%
6.486% ; 0.99%
6.79% ; 0.936%
7.095% ; 0.881%
7.4% ; 0.826%
7.704% ; 0.778%
8.009% ; 0.744%
8.314% ; 0.73%
8.618% ; 0.741%
8.923% ; 0.783%
9.227% ; 0.857%
9.532% ; 0.96%
9.837% ; 1.08%
10.14% ; 1.2%
10.45% ; 1.31%
10.75% ; 1.39%
11.06% ; 1.47%
11.36% ; 1.57%
11.66% ; 1.71%
11.97% ; 1.88%
12.27% ; 2.07%
12.58% ; 2.23%
12.88% ; 2.33%
13.19% ; 2.35%
13.49% ; 2.29%
13.8% ; 2.18%
14.1% ; 2.05%
14.41% ; 1.91%
14.71% ; 1.77%
15.02% ; 1.64%
15.32% ; 1.52%
15.62% ; 1.4%
15.93% ; 1.29%
16.23% ; 1.18%
16.54% ; 1.07%
16.84% ; 0.971%
17.15% ; 0.874%
17.45% ; 0.781%
17.76% ; 0.694%
18.06% ; 0.613%
18.37% ; 0.542%
18.67% ; 0.483%
18.98% ; 0.442%
19.28% ; 0.421%
19.59% ; 0.422%
19.89% ; 0.445%
20.19% ; 0.485%
20.5% ; 0.535%
20.8% ; 0.584%
21.11% ; 0.621%
21.41% ; 0.632%
21.72% ; 0.603%
22.02% ; 0.534%
22.33% ; 0.436%
22.63% ; 0.326%
22.94% ; 0.224%
23.24% ; 0.141%
23.55% ; 0.0807%
23.85% ; 0%

This model is a BETA-version!

It may not be fully tested and its features may change in the future.
If you have great ideas for improving this model then please contact us.

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