- This violin-plot shows the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for investment periods between 1-10 years, when the current share-price is .
- If there are losses in some simulations, then the red boxes on the bottom show the probability of loss for each future year.
- This plot shows how different share-prices would impact the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for all investment periods between 1-10 years.
- The x-axis shows a range of share-prices around the current share-price of , which is marked as a dashed blue line.
- The red box at the bottom shows the probability of loss if the current share-price is , when considering all investment periods between 1-10 years.
These plots show the probability distributions that are common for all simulation years.
- These plots show the probability distributions for individual simulation years.
- The dashed blue lines show the median P/S ratios calculated from the simulated Sales in each year, and the current Market-Cap (current share-price X number of shares) minus the Excess Cash. This lets you easily see if there is likely going to be a future loss or gain from re-valuation of the stock's P/S ratio.
Sally Beauty Holdings / Realistic / No-Growth
Internal Rate of Return of Stock using P/S Ratios (Model IRR‑STK‑PS)
@SimSim May 16, 2024
This model simulates the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of a company to long-term shareholders, where the excess cash and all future earnings are assumed to be paid out as dividends.
The future share-prices are simulated using P/S (Price-To-Sales) ratios so the earnings can be zero or negative.
The IRR is the discount rate that makes the Present Value of the future dividends and share-price equal to the current share-price. The IRR models are somewhat finicky with regard to the user-input and cannot always find the IRR.
Earnings - Year 1
Earnings - Year 2
Earnings - Year 3
Earnings - Year 4
Earnings - Year 5
Earnings - Year 6
Earnings - Year 7
Earnings - Year 8
Earnings - Year 9
Earnings - Year 10
Sales - Year 1
Sales - Year 2
Sales - Year 3
Sales - Year 4
Sales - Year 5
Sales - Year 6
Sales - Year 7
Sales - Year 8
Sales - Year 9
Sales - Year 10
P/S Ratio - Year 1
P/S Ratio - Year 2
P/S Ratio - Year 3
P/S Ratio - Year 4
P/S Ratio - Year 5
P/S Ratio - Year 6
P/S Ratio - Year 7
P/S Ratio - Year 8
P/S Ratio - Year 9
P/S Ratio - Year 10
Tax-Rate Dividends
Tax-Rate Cap-Gains
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This model is a BETA-version!
It may not be fully tested and its features may change in the future.
If you have great ideas for improving this model then please contact us.
If you have great ideas for improving this model then please contact us.