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This violin-plot shows the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for investment periods between 1-10 years, when the current share-price is .

If there are losses in some simulations, then the red boxes on the bottom show the probability of loss for each future year.

This plot shows how different share-prices would impact the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for all investment periods between 1-10 years.

The x-axis shows a range of share-prices around the current share-price of , which is marked as a dashed blue line.

The red box at the bottom shows the probability of loss if the current share-price is , when considering all investment periods between 1-10 years.

These plots show the probability distributions for individual simulation years.

The dashed blue lines show the median P/S ratios calculated from the simulated Sales in each year, and the current Market-Cap (current share-price X number of shares) adjusted for the Excess Cash or Debt. This lets you easily see if there is likely going to be a future loss or gain from re-valuation of the stock's P/S ratio.

These plots show the probability distributions that are common for all simulation years.

Help!

This model simulates the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of a company to long-term shareholders, where the excess cash and all future earnings are assumed to be paid out as dividends.

The future share-prices are simulated using P/S (Price-To-Sales) ratios so the earnings can be zero or negative.

The IRR is the discount rate that makes the Present Value of the future dividends and share-price equal to the current share-price. The IRR models are somewhat finicky with regard to the user-input and cannot always find the IRR.

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Sally Beauty Holdings / Realistic / No-Growth (SBH)

Internal Rate of Return of Stock using P/S Ratios (Model IRR‑STK‑PS)

@SimSim 56 days ago

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EBITDA
FCF
Net Income

Current Share-Price

Current Shares

Excess Cash or Debt

Currency

Earnings - Year 1

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16.35m ; 0%
18.12m ; 0.377%
19.89m ; 0.51%
21.66m ; 0.617%
23.43m ; 0.674%
25.2m ; 0.672%
26.97m ; 0.619%
28.74m ; 0.531%
30.51m ; 0.425%
32.28m ; 0.316%
34.05m ; 0.216%
35.81m ; 0.134%
37.58m ; 0.0758%
39.35m ; 0.0397%
41.12m ; 0.023%
42.89m ; 0.023%
44.66m ; 0.0398%
46.43m ; 0.0754%
48.2m ; 0.132%
49.97m ; 0.206%
51.74m ; 0.291%
53.51m ; 0.378%
55.28m ; 0.461%
57.05m ; 0.538%
58.81m ; 0.61%
60.58m ; 0.68%
62.35m ; 0.74%
64.12m ; 0.781%
65.89m ; 0.791%
67.66m ; 0.766%
69.43m ; 0.71%
71.2m ; 0.63%
72.97m ; 0.54%
74.74m ; 0.454%
76.51m ; 0.39%
78.28m ; 0.36%
80.05m ; 0.365%
81.81m ; 0.398%
83.58m ; 0.439%
85.35m ; 0.468%
87.12m ; 0.47%
88.89m ; 0.441%
90.66m ; 0.389%
92.43m ; 0.332%
94.2m ; 0.29%
95.97m ; 0.278%
97.74m ; 0.303%
99.51m ; 0.364%
101.3m ; 0.452%
103m ; 0.56%
104.8m ; 0.68%
106.6m ; 0.805%
108.4m ; 0.932%
110.1m ; 1.06%
111.9m ; 1.19%
113.7m ; 1.3%
115.4m ; 1.39%
117.2m ; 1.45%
119m ; 1.49%
120.7m ; 1.54%
122.5m ; 1.6%
124.3m ; 1.69%
126m ; 1.82%
127.8m ; 1.97%
129.6m ; 2.14%
131.4m ; 2.31%
133.1m ; 2.47%
134.9m ; 2.62%
136.7m ; 2.75%
138.4m ; 2.86%
140.2m ; 2.94%
142m ; 3%
143.7m ; 3.02%
145.5m ; 3.02%
147.3m ; 2.99%
149m ; 2.91%
150.8m ; 2.78%
152.6m ; 2.58%
154.4m ; 2.32%
156.1m ; 2.03%
157.9m ; 1.75%
159.7m ; 1.48%
161.4m ; 1.26%
163.2m ; 1.09%
165m ; 0.979%
166.7m ; 0.925%
168.5m ; 0.931%
170.3m ; 0.982%
172m ; 1.05%
173.8m ; 1.11%
175.6m ; 1.14%
177.4m ; 1.1%
179.1m ; 1.01%
180.9m ; 0.885%
182.7m ; 0.738%
184.4m ; 0.586%
186.2m ; 0.442%
188m ; 0.313%
189.7m ; 0.205%
191.5m ; 0%

Earnings - Year 2

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Earnings - Year 3

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Earnings - Year 4

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116.35m ; 0%
118.12m ; 0.3767%
119.89m ; 0.5103%
121.66m ; 0.6171%
123.43m ; 0.6736%
125.2m ; 0.6718%
126.97m ; 0.6192%
128.74m ; 0.5314%
130.51m ; 0.4252%
132.28m ; 0.3159%
134.05m ; 0.2159%
135.81m ; 0.1344%
137.58m ; 0.07584%
139.35m ; 0.03972%
141.12m ; 0.02298%
142.89m ; 0.02299%
144.66m ; 0.03975%
146.43m ; 0.07544%
148.2m ; 0.1316%
149.97m ; 0.2058%
151.74m ; 0.2909%
153.51m ; 0.378%
155.28m ; 0.4606%
157.05m ; 0.5375%
158.81m ; 0.6104%
160.58m ; 0.6798%
162.35m ; 0.7401%
164.12m ; 0.7806%
165.89m ; 0.7909%
167.66m ; 0.7663%
169.43m ; 0.7098%
171.2m ; 0.63%
172.97m ; 0.5395%
174.74m ; 0.4541%
176.51m ; 0.3902%
178.28m ; 0.3598%
180.05m ; 0.3654%
181.81m ; 0.3977%
183.58m ; 0.4387%
185.35m ; 0.4681%
187.12m ; 0.4703%
188.89m ; 0.441%
190.66m ; 0.3888%
192.43m ; 0.3317%
194.2m ; 0.2898%
195.97m ; 0.2782%
197.74m ; 0.3033%
199.51m ; 0.3635%
201.28m ; 0.4521%
203.05m ; 0.5603%
204.81m ; 0.6799%
206.58m ; 0.8046%
208.35m ; 0.9321%
210.12m ; 1.062%
211.89m ; 1.189%
213.66m ; 1.304%
215.43m ; 1.393%
217.2m ; 1.453%
218.97m ; 1.494%
220.74m ; 1.535%
222.51m ; 1.597%
224.28m ; 1.691%
226.05m ; 1.818%
227.81m ; 1.97%
229.58m ; 2.136%
231.35m ; 2.305%
233.12m ; 2.466%
234.89m ; 2.615%
236.66m ; 2.747%
238.43m ; 2.857%
240.2m ; 2.94%
241.97m ; 2.995%
243.74m ; 3.022%
245.51m ; 3.022%
247.28m ; 2.99%
249.05m ; 2.912%
250.81m ; 2.777%
252.58m ; 2.577%
254.35m ; 2.322%
256.12m ; 2.034%
257.89m ; 1.745%
259.66m ; 1.483%
261.43m ; 1.263%
263.2m ; 1.093%
264.97m ; 0.9793%
266.74m ; 0.9254%
268.51m ; 0.9306%
270.28m ; 0.982%
272.05m ; 1.054%
273.81m ; 1.114%
275.58m ; 1.135%
277.35m ; 1.1%
279.12m ; 1.012%
280.89m ; 0.8849%
282.66m ; 0.7375%
284.43m ; 0.586%
286.2m ; 0.4417%
287.97m ; 0.3128%
289.74m ; 0.2054%
291.51m ; 0%

Earnings - Year 6

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Earnings - Year 7

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Earnings - Year 8

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Earnings - Year 9

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Earnings - Year 10

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Sales - Year 1

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Sales - Year 2

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Sales - Year 3

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Sales - Year 4

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Sales - Year 5

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Sales - Year 6

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Sales - Year 7

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Sales - Year 8

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Sales - Year 9

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Sales - Year 10

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P/S Ratio - Year 1

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0.2004 ; 0%
0.2065 ; 0.0922%
0.2125 ; 0.156%
0.2186 ; 0.232%
0.2246 ; 0.311%
0.2307 ; 0.377%
0.2367 ; 0.416%
0.2428 ; 0.425%
0.2488 ; 0.41%
0.2549 ; 0.389%
0.2609 ; 0.378%
0.267 ; 0.388%
0.273 ; 0.417%
0.2791 ; 0.464%
0.2851 ; 0.523%
0.2912 ; 0.586%
0.2972 ; 0.641%
0.3033 ; 0.68%
0.3093 ; 0.706%
0.3154 ; 0.737%
0.3214 ; 0.792%
0.3275 ; 0.88%
0.3336 ; 1%
0.3396 ; 1.14%
0.3457 ; 1.29%
0.3517 ; 1.43%
0.3578 ; 1.55%
0.3638 ; 1.63%
0.3699 ; 1.69%
0.3759 ; 1.7%
0.382 ; 1.68%
0.388 ; 1.63%
0.3941 ; 1.57%
0.4001 ; 1.53%
0.4062 ; 1.52%
0.4122 ; 1.55%
0.4183 ; 1.6%
0.4243 ; 1.64%
0.4304 ; 1.66%
0.4364 ; 1.65%
0.4425 ; 1.62%
0.4485 ; 1.61%
0.4546 ; 1.61%
0.4606 ; 1.62%
0.4667 ; 1.65%
0.4727 ; 1.7%
0.4788 ; 1.76%
0.4848 ; 1.82%
0.4909 ; 1.87%
0.4969 ; 1.9%
0.503 ; 1.9%
0.509 ; 1.89%
0.5151 ; 1.86%
0.5211 ; 1.84%
0.5272 ; 1.82%
0.5332 ; 1.83%
0.5393 ; 1.87%
0.5453 ; 1.92%
0.5514 ; 1.98%
0.5574 ; 1.99%
0.5635 ; 1.95%
0.5695 ; 1.83%
0.5756 ; 1.65%
0.5816 ; 1.44%
0.5877 ; 1.25%
0.5938 ; 1.11%
0.5998 ; 1.02%
0.6059 ; 0.981%
0.6119 ; 0.957%
0.618 ; 0.941%
0.624 ; 0.935%
0.6301 ; 0.941%
0.6361 ; 0.952%
0.6422 ; 0.953%
0.6482 ; 0.927%
0.6543 ; 0.873%
0.6603 ; 0.798%
0.6664 ; 0.718%
0.6724 ; 0.649%
0.6785 ; 0.602%
0.6845 ; 0.579%
0.6906 ; 0.574%
0.6966 ; 0.571%
0.7027 ; 0.558%
0.7087 ; 0.526%
0.7148 ; 0.474%
0.7208 ; 0.409%
0.7269 ; 0.336%
0.7329 ; 0.263%
0.739 ; 0.197%
0.745 ; 0.143%
0.7511 ; 0.105%
0.7571 ; 0.0779%
0.7632 ; 0.059%
0.7692 ; 0.0448%
0.7753 ; 0.0336%
0.7813 ; 0.0245%
0.7874 ; 0.0168%
0.7934 ; 0.0106%
0.7995 ; 0%

P/S Ratio - Year 2

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P/S Ratio - Year 3

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P/S Ratio - Year 4

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P/S Ratio - Year 5

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0.1862 ; 0%
0.2006 ; 0.183%
0.215 ; 0.255%
0.2294 ; 0.337%
0.2438 ; 0.427%
0.2582 ; 0.526%
0.2726 ; 0.636%
0.287 ; 0.76%
0.3014 ; 0.899%
0.3158 ; 1.05%
0.3302 ; 1.21%
0.3446 ; 1.36%
0.359 ; 1.5%
0.3733 ; 1.62%
0.3877 ; 1.71%
0.4021 ; 1.78%
0.4165 ; 1.83%
0.4309 ; 1.88%
0.4453 ; 1.93%
0.4597 ; 1.98%
0.4741 ; 2.04%
0.4885 ; 2.09%
0.5029 ; 2.13%
0.5173 ; 2.15%
0.5317 ; 2.14%
0.5461 ; 2.09%
0.5605 ; 2%
0.5749 ; 1.87%
0.5892 ; 1.73%
0.6036 ; 1.57%
0.618 ; 1.43%
0.6324 ; 1.29%
0.6468 ; 1.18%
0.6612 ; 1.08%
0.6756 ; 0.995%
0.69 ; 0.924%
0.7044 ; 0.861%
0.7188 ; 0.802%
0.7332 ; 0.747%
0.7476 ; 0.695%
0.762 ; 0.648%
0.7764 ; 0.609%
0.7908 ; 0.578%
0.8051 ; 0.554%
0.8195 ; 0.535%
0.8339 ; 0.519%
0.8483 ; 0.505%
0.8627 ; 0.496%
0.8771 ; 0.496%
0.8915 ; 0.514%
0.9059 ; 0.554%
0.9203 ; 0.616%
0.9347 ; 0.693%
0.9491 ; 0.772%
0.9635 ; 0.838%
0.9779 ; 0.88%
0.9923 ; 0.894%
1.007 ; 0.888%
1.021 ; 0.874%
1.035 ; 0.863%
1.05 ; 0.867%
1.064 ; 0.886%
1.079 ; 0.914%
1.093 ; 0.944%
1.107 ; 0.966%
1.122 ; 0.974%
1.136 ; 0.967%
1.151 ; 0.954%
1.165 ; 0.947%
1.179 ; 0.957%
1.194 ; 0.994%
1.208 ; 1.06%
1.223 ; 1.15%
1.237 ; 1.24%
1.251 ; 1.33%
1.266 ; 1.4%
1.28 ; 1.43%
1.295 ; 1.42%
1.309 ; 1.38%
1.323 ; 1.3%
1.338 ; 1.2%
1.352 ; 1.1%
1.366 ; 1.01%
1.381 ; 0.949%
1.395 ; 0.902%
1.41 ; 0.867%
1.424 ; 0.836%
1.438 ; 0.803%
1.453 ; 0.766%
1.467 ; 0.722%
1.482 ; 0.673%
1.496 ; 0.619%
1.51 ; 0.56%
1.525 ; 0.495%
1.539 ; 0.426%
1.554 ; 0.353%
1.568 ; 0.28%
1.582 ; 0.211%
1.597 ; 0.149%
1.611 ; 0%

P/S Ratio - Year 6

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P/S Ratio - Year 7

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P/S Ratio - Year 8

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P/S Ratio - Year 9

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P/S Ratio - Year 10

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Tax-Rate Dividends

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Tax-Rate Cap-Gains

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This model is a BETA-version!

It may not be fully tested and its features may change in the future.
If you have great ideas for improving this model then please contact us.

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