Simulation Models

Model	Description
STK-BUY-IV	Stock Buyback Valuation using Intrinsic Values (BETA)
STK-BUY-PE	Stock Buyback Valuation using P/E Ratios (BETA)
STK-BUY-PS	Stock Buyback Valuation using P/S Ratios (BETA)
STK-BUY-TG	Stock Buyback Valuation using Terminal Growth (BETA)
STK-IS-CASH	Stock Issuance for Cash Payment (BETA)
STK-IS-INV	Stock Issuance to Fund Investment (BETA)
STK-IS-FULL	Stock Issuance for Full Acquisition (BETA)
STK-IS-PART	Stock Issuance for Partial Acquisition (BETA)
STK-IRR-PE	Internal Rate of Return of Stock using P/E Ratios (BETA)
STK-IRR-PS	Internal Rate of Return of Stock using P/S Ratios (BETA)
STK-IRR-TG	Internal Rate of Return of Stock using Terminal Growth (BETA)
STK-PV-PE	Present Value of Stock using P/E Ratios (BETA)
STK-PV-PS	Present Value of Stock using P/S Ratios (BETA)
STK-PV-TG	Present Value of Stock using Terminal Growth (BETA)
STK-TR-PE	Total Return of Stock using P/E Ratios (BETA)
STK-TR-PS	Total Return of Stock using P/S Ratios (BETA)
STK-YLD-PE	Earnings Yield and Price Change of Stock using P/E Ratios (BETA)
STK-YLD-PS	Earnings Yield and Price Change of Stock using P/S Ratios (BETA)

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Financial numbers are shown as totals for the company rather than per-share numbers such as sales or earnings per share. This is because changes in the number of shares from share buybacks and issuances would obfuscate the actual change in sales and earnings.
These plots use TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) financial data for a company. This has the benefit of providing 4 data-points per year compared to only 1 data-point for annual data. But one-time payments affect 4 TTM data-points which can be a bit confusing. For example, if the company makes a large acquisition or one-time dividend payout, the amount will affect the quarter in which the event occurred, as well as the following 3 quarters. So keep in mind that each TTM data-point covers the previous 12 months.
Data is linearly interpolated between the data-points e.g. when converting TTM to weekly data-points. This is done to get smooth lines instead of stair-case patterns in the data and plots. But it is a form of cheating because future data is being used before it was actually known. This would be catastrophic for a system that was trying to predict the future e.g. for stock-trading. But these plots are intended to give an overview of the historical data, as well as creating probability distributions from the historical data, where interpolation is reasonable and helpful.
Ratios use data from the same year. For example, the ROA ratio is calculated from the Net Income and Total Assets for the same year. It can be argued that we should use the Total Assets from the previous year instead, and it can also be argued that we should use an average of those two numbers. There is usually very little difference in practice, so we just use the numbers from the same year. This goes for other ratios as well.

Malibu Boats, Inc. (MBUU)

AI Score

Price

Earnings Yield = 17%
P/S Relative = -36%

Profit

ROA = 11%
ROE = 24%
Net Margin = 10%

Solvency

Interest / EBITDA = 3%
Net Debt / Assets = 0%

Growth

Future Growth = 3%
Past Growth = -10%

Business: Malibu Boats, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets recreational powerboats, primarily focusing on performance watersports boats and saltwater fishing boats. The company operates globally with a diverse product portfolio and strong brand reputation in the premium segment. It emphasizes innovation in design and technology to enhance the boating experience for its customers.

Verdict: Operates with a strong brand and leading market position in performance watersports. The company demonstrates good financial health and profitability, though it faces cyclical demand inherent in the recreational boat industry. Management is focused on aligning production with demand and maintaining dealer health.

Risks: The company faces risks common in manufacturing-driven businesses, including supply chain disruptions, raw material cost fluctuations, and labor availability. Economic downturns and changes in consumer discretionary spending can significantly impact demand for recreational boats. Competition, product liability claims, and and compliance with environmental regulations also pose potential risks.

Growth: Expected growth is driven by a strong brand presence and continued demand in the premium recreational boat market. The company's focus on product innovation and maintaining dealer health is anticipated to support future sales, although market cyclicality and economic factors could influence the pace of expansion. Analysts generally have a "Buy" consensus rating for the stock, with projected sales growth for fiscal year 2026.

A robot has produced this text, the AI score, and the future growth estimate. Although we use one of the best AI robots with recent information, you should still take this with a grain of salt.

This plot shows the weekly average closing share-price adjusted for stock-splits.

This plot shows the company's market-capitalization, which is the weekly average closing share-price multiplied by the number of shares outstanding.

The diluted number of shares is used when it is available, instead of the actual number of shares outstanding, because this gives a more realistic market-cap for use in valuation. This assumes all employee stock-options and other stock conversion rights will be exercised, thus increasing the number of shares outstanding.

These plots show the Max Drawdown and Pullup for 3-year rolling windows.

Max Drawdown is shown in red. It is the loss between the current share-price and the max share-price for the preceding 3 years.

Max Pullup is shown in green. It is the gain between the current share-price and the min share-price for the preceding 3 years.

These include reinvested dividends (aka. Total Return).

This plot shows the P/S (Price-To-Sales) ratio, which is the company's diluted market-cap divided by the TTM sales.
Outliers >5 IQR are clipped.

This plot shows the P/E (Price-To-Earnings) ratio, which is the company's diluted market-cap divided by three estimates of the TTM earnings.

P/E uses the Net Income as reported in the company's financial statements.
P/FCF uses the Free Cash Flow which is the Operating Cash Flow minus Capital Expenditures.

The ratios are ill-defined for negative earnings, so they are set to the max positive ratio.

Outliers >5 IQR are clipped.

This plot shows the P/B (Price-To-Book) ratio, which is the company's diluted market-cap divided by the equity book-value.

The tangible book-value has subtracted the intangibles such as patents and trademarks, and goodwill which are the premiums paid for other companies' assets in acquisitions.

The ratios are ill-defined for negative book-values, so they are set to the max positive ratio.

Outliers >5 IQR are clipped.

These plots show the Enterprise Value multiples and yields.

Click next to the plot to switch between the multiples and yields.

EV is the Enterprise Value which is the company's diluted Market-Cap + Total Debt + Minority Interests - Cash & Equivalents.
EBIT is the Earnings Before Interest and Taxes. It is also called Operating Income.
EBITDA is the Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization.

The multiples are ill-defined for zero and negative EBIT and EBITDA, so they are set to the max positive value.

The yields are just the inverse of the multiples, which are well-defined for zero and negative EBIT and EBITDA.

Outliers >3 IQR are clipped for the multiples.

This plot shows the company's TTM sales or revenue.

For some financial companies like banks, insurance companies and stock-brokers, this shows the revenue from various fees, plus the net interest and investment income.

This plot shows different estimates for the company's TTM earnings.

The first three are estimates for the earnings that could be paid out as dividends to shareholders. These are different because of the somewhat ambiguous nature of accounting. To determine which is the most accurate for a company in a given situation, would require more detailed analysis of its financial statements.

Net Income is the number reported in the company's financial statements.
FCF is the Free Cash Flow which is the Operating Cash Flow minus Capital Expenditures.
EBITDA is the Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization, which is calculated as the Operating Income plus Depreciation and Amortization. This is used to measure e.g. the company's ability to pay interest on its debt, and should not be used in valuation of the stock as it would likely overstate the value.

This plot shows the company's share buybacks and dividend payouts to shareholders.

Click next to the plot to switch between the yields and amounts. The yields are the TTM amounts divided by the average diluted market-cap for the past quarter.

If the company stops the payouts, then these plots will be misleading up to a year afterwards, because the TTM values continue to include some of the prior year's payouts.

The share buyback is net of share issuance. The number is positive when the company spent more money on share buybacks than it received from new share issuances. Otherwise the number is negative.

A share buyback is not a direct payout to shareholders that puts money into the hands of the remaining shareholders like a dividend payout does. Share buybacks benefit or destroy long-term shareholder value depending on the share-price relative to the intrinsic value. See the docs for an explanation.

These amounts are the same as in the Cash Flow tab but have the opposite sign.

This plot shows the company's TTM cash flows.

Positive values are cash inflows for the company. Negative values are cash outflows.

Ratios are normalized so the cash inflows sum to 100%.

Net Income is the earnings reported in the company's financial statements.
Depr & Amor is the depreciation of tangible assets and the amortization of intangible assets. These may be slightly different from the values found in the Income Statement, because they may be calculated using different methods.
Dividend is the amount paid out as dividends to shareholders.
Net Share Buyback is negative when the company spent more money on share buybacks than it received from new share issuances. Otherwise the number is positive.
CapEx are the capital expenditures, which is cash spent on new Property, Plant & Equipment (PP&E), net of cash obtained from the sale of other PP&E.
Chg Debt is positive when the company issues more debt, and negative when the company repays its debt.
Chg Invest are changes in the company's investments. It is positive when the company sells some of its investments, and negative when it buys them.
Acq & Divest is negative when the company acquires another company, and positive when the company divests or sells one of its business units.
Other Cash-Flows don't fall into the categories above.

This plot shows the company's assets from the balance sheet.

Ratios are calculated from each amount divided by the Total Assets.

Cash & Equiv include short-term investments such as low-risk government bonds that can be turned into cash within 90 days or less.
Receivables are the money owed to the company by its customers for sales that haven't been paid yet.
Inventory is the value of raw materials and products that are still in production or ready for sale.
Other Current Assets vary between businesses, but are generally assets that are expected to be consumed or turned into cash within one year.
PP&E is Plant, Property and Equipment which are long-term assets such as factories, machines, etc. The amount is net of depreciation. After 2019 this may include so-called "Right-of-Use" for leased assets.
Investments are assets that are held for investment purposes. This can be long-term government bonds, stocks in other companies, real estate, etc. It can also be finance receivables if the company provides long-term credit to its customers.
Intangibles are non-physical assets such as patents and trademarks. This also includes Goodwill which is the premium paid for another company's assets in an acquisition.
Other Assets vary between businesses and can be e.g. prepaid expenses and right-of-use leases. This is also used for assets that aren't categorized properly in the data.

This plot shows the company's liabilities and shareholder equity from the balance sheet.

Ratios are calculated from each amount divided by the Total Assets.

Total Equity is the amount paid in capital by shareholders plus retained earnings or losses. It should equal the total assets minus total liabilities and minority interest.
Minority Interest is the part of the company's subsidiaries that is owned by other parties.
Payables is the amount the company owes to its suppliers for raw materials and services.
Current Debt is the portion of the company's debt that must be repaid within one year. After 2019 this may include short-term lease obligations.
Other Current Liabilities vary between businesses, but are generally liabilities that must be paid within one year.
LT Debt is the portion of the company's debt that must be repaid after more than one year. After 2019 this may include long-term lease obligations.
Other Liabilities vary between businesses and can be tax liabilities, reserves, and long-term lease obligations. This is also used for liabilities that aren't categorized properly in the data.

These plots show financial ratios that may predict future sales growth.

Click next to the plot to switch between cumulative and yearly data.

(CapEx - Depr & Amor) / Sales shows the investment in PP&E in excess of the required maintenance, and relative to the sales.
R&D / Sales shows the investment in research and development relative to the sales.
Acq & Divest / Total Assets shows how much the assets have changed from acquisitions of other businesses net of divestments.

Outliers >5 IQR are clipped only for the YOY sales growth-rate.

These plots show different kinds of growth-rates for the company's TTM sales.

Click next to the plot to switch between the CAGR and YOY.

CAGR is the Compound Annual Growth-Rate which shows the long-term annualized growth-rate between each past date and now.
YOY is the Year-Over-Year growth-rate.

Outliers >5 IQR are clipped.

These plots show different kinds of growth-rates for the company's TTM EBITDA, which is used to show earnings growth because it is less volatile than the Net Income.

Click next to the plot to switch between the CAGR and YOY.

CAGR is the Compound Annual Growth-Rate which shows the long-term annualized growth-rate between each past date and now.
YOY is the Year-Over-Year growth-rate.

The standard growth-rate formulas are ill-defined for zero and negative EBITDA. To circumvent this problem we instead consider the magnitude change of the EBITDA.

Outliers >5 IQR are clipped.

This plot shows the company's TTM profit margins.

Gross Margin is the gross profit divided by the sales. For some financial companies like banks, stock-brokers and investment managers, this is 100% because their sales are net of financial expenses, so the gross profit equals the sales.
Operating Margin is the operating profit divided by the sales.
Net Margin is the reported Net Income divided by the sales.
FCF Margin is the Free Cash Flow divided by the sales. The FCF is the Operating Cash Flow minus Capital Expenditures.

Profit margins beyond ±100% are clipped. As are outliers >5 IQR.

This plot shows the TTM Interest Expense divided by EBITDA and Operating Income.

This measures how much of the EBITDA is used to service the debt with interest payments.

This currently only takes the interest expense into account, although some companies also have significant interest income.

For some financial companies like banks and stock-brokers, this is 0% because the interest expense is already subtracted from the sales.

The ratio is set to 100% for negative EBITDA and operating income, unless the interest expense is zero, in which case the ratio is also set to zero.

Ratios >100% are clipped.

This plot shows the company's Total Debt (and net of cash) divided by Total Assets (and net of cash).

This shows the percentage of the company's assets that is funded by debt.

The net amounts only subtract cash & equivalents. Short-term investments such as low-risk bonds are not specified in this data-set.

Ratios <0% are clipped. This occurs when cash & equivalents are greater than debt.

This plot shows the company's Total Debt (and net of cash) divided by the TTM EBITDA.

This estimates how many years it would take to repay all the company's debt if the TTM EBITDA continues in the future.

For negative EBITDA the ratio is set to 30, unless the debt is zero or the net debt is negative, in which case the ratio is also set to zero.

Ratios >30 are clipped.

This plot shows the company's Total Debt (and net of cash) divided by the TTM Free Cash Flow.

This estimates how many years it would take to repay all the company's debt if the TTM Free Cash Flow continues in the future.

For negative FCF the ratio is set to 30, unless the debt is zero or the net debt is negative, in which case the ratio is also set to zero.

Ratios >30 are clipped.

This plot shows the company's liquidity ratios.

Current Ratio is the Current Assets divided by the Current Liabilities.
Quick Ratio is the Cash & Equivalents plus Receivables divided by the Current Liabilities.
Cash Ratio is the Cash & Equivalents divided by the Current Liabilities.

This plot shows the company's return ratios.

ROA is the Return On Assets, which is the reported TTM Net Income divided by the Total Assets.
ROE is the Return On Equity, which is the reported TTM Net Income divided by the Total Equity.

This plot shows the Asset Turnover, which is the company's TTM Sales divided by its Total Assets.
This shows how much sales are generated from the company's assets in a year.

This plot shows the company's Inventory Turnover, which is the TTM Cost of Sales divided by the Inventory amount.

This shows how many times per year the entire inventory is sold.

It is zero for companies that do not have inventory.

This plot shows Days Sales ratios, which measure how many days on average it takes for the company to achieve certain goals.

DS Inventory measures the average number of days it takes to sell all the company's inventory. It is 365 multiplied by the Inventory amount and divided by the TTM Cost of Sales. It is zero when the company does not have any inventory.
DS Outstanding measures the average number of days it takes to collect payment for sales. It is 365 multiplied by the amount of Receivables and then divided by the TTM Sales. It is zero when the company does not have any receivables.

This plot shows the company's basic and diluted weighted-average shares outstanding.

Basic Shares are the ones that are actually issued and outstanding.
Diluted Shares assume all employee stock-options and other stock conversion rights will be exercised, thus increasing the number of shares outstanding. This is a more realistic number for use in valuation.

Caveats:

Data for the diluted shares is sometimes partially or entirely missing in this database, even though the company actually does have diluted shares.
In case of non-US companies trading on US stock-exchanges, these share numbers are adjusted for the conversion ratio of the ADS (American Depositary Shares).
These share numbers are also adjusted for multiple stock-classes, but the adjustments are sometimes wrong in this database. Fortunately there are very few companies with multiple stock-classes.

Simulation Models

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AI Score

Price

Profit

Solvency

Growth