This model simulates the gain/loss when company A issues new shares to fully acquire another company B. This is also called a full stock swap, and the Swap Ratio is the number of new shares issued in company A divided by the current number of shares in company B.
Whether this results in a gain or loss to the shareholders of the two companies, depends on how many new shares of company A that are issued to pay for company B, compared to the intrinsic values of the two companies, as well as the earnings synergies that arise from the merger. This is only a "zero-sum game" when the synergies equal the fees.
You should NOT adjust the intrinsic value for tax on dividends and capital gains, because that would distort the calculations. You also cannot specify the dividend tax in this model, because it cancels out in the formulas.
Keywords: DEMO SBH ULTA
- (A) ULTA Earnings = Net Profit Margin (2014-2023) x Sales (2023)
- (B) SBH Earnings = Net Profit Margin (2011-2023) x Sales (2022-2023)
- Both companies:
- Zero Real Growth
- Discount Rate = normal dist 10% mean, 1% std.dev.
- These plots show the probability distributions for the simulations.
- The top plots show the Intrinsic Values of the companies A and B to their current shareholders before the stock swap. Their current Market-Caps are shown as dashed blue lines, so you can easily see how they compare to the Intrinsic Values.
- The bottom plot shows the earnings synergies that arise from the merger of the two companies.
- This plot shows the Return on Intrinsic Value (ROIV) for the current shareholders of company A, when company A issues 3.3m new shares to fully acquire company B. This corresponds to 6.08% of total shares in company A, and a Swap Ratio of 0.03.
- >99.9% of 100k simulation trials had valid results. Outliers >10.0 IQR are removed.
- ROIV is invalid when the intrinsic value is zero or negative. ROIS also works in those cases.
- The red box at the bottom shows the probability of loss for the current shareholders of company A.
- This plot shows the Return on Intrinsic Value (ROIV) for the current shareholders of company B, when company A issues 3.3m new shares to fully acquire company B. This corresponds to 6.08% of total shares in company A, and a Swap Ratio of 0.03.
- 100% of 100k simulation trials had valid results. Outliers >10.0 IQR are removed.
- ROIV is invalid when the intrinsic value is zero or negative. ROIS also works in those cases.
- The red box at the bottom shows the probability of loss for the current shareholders of company B.
- This plot shows the Return on Issuance (ROIS) for the current shareholders of company A, when company A issues 3.3m new shares to fully acquire company B. This corresponds to 6.08% of total shares in company A, and a Swap Ratio of 0.03.
- 100% of 100k simulation trials had valid results. Outliers >10.0 IQR are removed.
- The red box at the bottom shows the probability of loss for the current shareholders of company A.
- This plot shows the Return on Issuance (ROIS) for the current shareholders of company B, when company A issues 3.3m new shares to fully acquire company B. This corresponds to 6.08% of total shares in company A, and a Swap Ratio of 0.03.
- 100% of 100k simulation trials had valid results. Outliers >10.0 IQR are removed.
- The red box at the bottom shows the probability of loss for the current shareholders of company B.
- This plot shows how different Swap Ratios would impact the Return on Intrinsic Value (ROIV) for the current shareholders of company A, when issuing new shares to fully acquire company B.
- >99.9% of 100k simulation trials had valid results. Outliers >10.0 IQR are removed.
- ROIV is invalid when the intrinsic value is zero or negative. ROIS also works in those cases.
- The x-axis shows a range of Swap Ratios around 0.03, which is marked as a dashed blue line.
- The y-axis shows the Return on Intrinsic Value (ROIV) for the current shareholders of company A.
- The red box at the bottom shows the probability of loss for the current shareholders of company A, when the Swap Ratio is 0.03.
- This plot shows how different Swap Ratios would impact the Return on Intrinsic Value (ROIV) for the current shareholders of company B, when swapping all their shares for newly issued shares in company A.
- 100% of 100k simulation trials had valid results. Outliers >10.0 IQR are removed.
- ROIV is invalid when the intrinsic value is zero or negative. ROIS also works in those cases.
- The x-axis shows a range of Swap Ratios around 0.03, which is marked as a dashed blue line.
- The y-axis shows the Return on Intrinsic Value (ROIV) for the current shareholders of company B.
- The red box at the bottom shows the probability of loss for the current shareholders of company B, when the Swap Ratio is 0.03.
- This plot shows how different Swap Ratios would impact the Return on Issuance (ROIS) for the current shareholders of company A, when issuing new shares to fully acquire company B.
- 100% of 100k simulation trials had valid results. Outliers >10.0 IQR are removed.
- The x-axis shows a range of Swap Ratios around 0.03, which is marked as a dashed blue line.
- The y-axis shows the Return on Issuance (ROIS) for the current shareholders of company A.
- The red box at the bottom shows the probability of loss for the current shareholders of company A, when the Swap Ratio is 0.03.
- This plot shows how different Swap Ratios would impact the Return on Issuance (ROIS) for the current shareholders of company B, when swapping all their shares for newly issued shares in company A.
- 100% of 100k simulation trials had valid results. Outliers >10.0 IQR are removed.
- The x-axis shows a range of Swap Ratios around 0.03, which is marked as a dashed blue line.
- The y-axis shows the Return on Issuance (ROIS) for the current shareholders of company B.
- The red box at the bottom shows the probability of loss for the current shareholders of company B, when the Swap Ratio is 0.03.