Ulta Beauty / High Earnings Growth 5Y
Share Issuance to Fund Investment (Model SI‑INV)
@SimSim 2 months ago 1 Views
This model simulates the gain/loss to current and new shareholders, when a company makes a new share issuance to fund an investment. The issuance amount equals the investment amount plus fees. But the fees are not actually needed in the valuation formulas so they have been omitted.
Whether the share issuance results in a gain or loss to the current and new shareholders, depends on whether the shares are mispriced, as well as the return on the investment. This is only a "zero-sum game" when the issuance amount equals the return on the investment.
You should NOT adjust the intrinsic value for tax on dividends and capital gains, because that would distort the calculations. You also cannot specify the dividend tax in this model, because it cancels out in the formulas.
Keywords: DEMO ULTA
Intrinsic value is Present Value of following earnings:
- Earnings Y1 = Net Profit Margin (2014-2023) x Sales (2023)
- Earnings Y2 = Earnings Y1 x Sales Growth (2009-2020)
- Earnings Y3 = Earnings Y2 x 1.15 (i.e. 15% growth)
- Earnings Y4 = Earnings Y3 x 1.15
- Earnings Y5 = Earnings Y4 x 1.15
- Terminal Growth-Rate = normal dist 5% mean, 0.5% std.dev.
- Discount Rate = normal dist 10% mean, 1% std.dev.
- Warning: Funding of the future growth has not been subtracted from the earnings, so the Present Value is likely over-estimated!
- These plots show the probability distributions used in the simulations.
- The left plot shows the Intrinsic Value of company A to its current shareholders before the share issuance. The current Market-Cap (USD 18.9b) is shown as a dashed blue line in the plot, so you can easily see how it compares to the Intrinsic Value.
- The right plot shows the Return Value for the investment. The Issuance Amount (USD 1b) is shown as a dashed blue line in the plot, so you can easily see how it compares to the Return Value for the investment.
- This histogram shows the Return on Intrinsic Value (ROIV) for the current shareholders, when making a share issuance for USD 1b at the current share-price of USD 370.
- >99.9% of 500k simulation trials had valid results. Outliers >10.0 IQR are removed.
- ROIV is invalid when the intrinsic value is zero or negative. ROIS also works in those cases.
- The red box at the bottom shows the probability of loss, when the current share-price is USD 370.
- This histogram shows the Return on Issuance (ROIS) for the current shareholders, when making a share issuance for USD 1b at the current share-price of USD 370.
- 100% of 500k simulation trials had valid results. Outliers >10.0 IQR are removed.
- The red box at the bottom shows the probability of loss, when the current share-price is USD 370.
- This histogram shows the Return on Issuance (ROIS) for the buyer of the new shares, when making a share issuance for USD 1b at the current share-price of USD 370.
- 100% of 500k simulation trials had valid results. Outliers >10.0 IQR are removed.
- The red box at the bottom shows the probability of loss, when the current share-price is USD 370.
- This 2D histogram shows how different share-prices at the time of the share issuance, would impact the Return on Intrinsic Value (ROIV) for the current shareholders, when making a share issuance for USD 1b.
- 100% of 500k simulation trials had valid results. Outliers >10.0 IQR are removed.
- ROIV is invalid when the intrinsic value is zero or negative. ROIS also works in those cases.
- The x-axis shows a range of share-prices around the current share-price of USD 370, which is marked as a dashed blue line.
- The y-axis shows the Return on Intrinsic Value (ROIV) for the current shareholders.
- The red box at the bottom shows the probability of loss, if the share issuance is made at the current share-price of USD 370.
- This 2D histogram shows how different share-prices at the time of the share issuance, would impact the Return on Issuance (ROIS) for the current shareholders, when making a share issuance for USD 1b.
- >99.9% of 500k simulation trials had valid results. Outliers >10.0 IQR are removed.
- The x-axis shows a range of share-prices around the current share-price of USD 370, which is marked as a dashed blue line.
- The y-axis shows the Return on Issuance (ROIS) for the current shareholders.
- The red box at the bottom shows the probability of loss, if the share issuance is made at the current share-price of USD 370.
- This 2D histogram shows how different share-prices at the time of the share issuance, would impact the Return on Issuance (ROIS) for the buyer of the new shares, when making a share issuance for USD 1b.
- >99.9% of 500k simulation trials had valid results. Outliers >10.0 IQR are removed.
- The x-axis shows a range of share-prices around the current share-price of USD 370, which is marked as a dashed blue line.
- The y-axis shows the Return on Issuance (ROIS) for the buyer of the new shares.
- The red box at the bottom shows the probability of loss, if the share issuance is made at the current share-price of USD 370.
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