Ulta Beauty / High Earnings Growth 5Y

Share Issuance for Cash Payment (Model SI‑CASH)

@SimSim 42 days ago 1 Views

This model simulates the gain/loss to current and new shareholders, when a company makes a new share issuance in exchange for a cash payment.

Whether the share issuance results in a gain or loss to the current and new shareholders, depends on whether the shares are mispriced. This is only a "zero-sum game" when the fees are zero.

You should NOT adjust the intrinsic value for tax on dividends and capital gains, because that would distort the calculations. You also cannot specify the dividend tax in this model, because it cancels out in the formulas.

Docs Related Models

Keywords: DEMO ULTA

Intrinsic value is Present Value of following earnings:

  • Earnings Y1 = Net Profit Margin (2014-2023) x Sales (2023)
  • Earnings Y2 = Earnings Y1 x Sales Growth (2009-2020)
  • Earnings Y3 = Earnings Y2 x 1.15 (i.e. 15% growth)
  • Earnings Y4 = Earnings Y3 x 1.15
  • Earnings Y5 = Earnings Y4 x 1.15
  • Terminal Growth-Rate = normal dist 5% mean, 0.5% std.dev.
  • Discount Rate = normal dist 10% mean, 1% std.dev.
  • Warning: Funding of the future growth has not been subtracted from the earnings, so the Present Value is likely over-estimated!

2024-10-22T09:44:17.879595 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.9.2, https://matplotlib.org/ 0 50b 100b Intrinsic Value A Current Market-Cap = USD 18.9b
  • This plot shows the probability distribution for the Intrinsic Value of company A to its current shareholders before the share issuance.
  • The current Market-Cap (USD 18.9b) is shown as a dashed blue line in the plot, so you can easily see how it compares to the Intrinsic Value.
2024-10-22T09:44:08.783267 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.9.2, https://matplotlib.org/ -5% -2.5% 0% 2.5% 5% 7.5% 10% 12.5% 15% Return on Intrinsic Value (ROIV) for Company A SimSim.Run - Oct 22-2024 (UTC) Ulta Beauty / High Earnings Growth 5Y Share Issuance for Cash Payment (Model SI-CASH) Prob Loss: 85% Normal Mean -1.08% / Std 1.5% Kernel Density Estimate (KDE)
  • This histogram shows the Return on Intrinsic Value (ROIV) for the current shareholders, when making a share issuance for USD 1b at the current share-price of USD 370.
  • 100% of 500k simulation trials had valid results. Outliers >10.0 IQR are removed.
  • ROIV is invalid when the intrinsic value is zero or negative. ROIS also works in those cases.
  • The red box at the bottom shows the probability of loss, when the current share-price is USD 370.
2024-10-22T09:44:09.980744 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.9.2, https://matplotlib.org/ -600% -500% -400% -300% -200% -100% 0% 100% Return on Issuance (ROIS) for Company A SimSim.Run - Oct 22-2024 (UTC) Ulta Beauty / High Earnings Growth 5Y Share Issuance for Cash Payment (Model SI-CASH) Prob Loss: 85% Normal Mean -40.7% / Std 48% Kernel Density Estimate (KDE)
  • This histogram shows the Return on Issuance (ROIS) for the current shareholders, when making a share issuance for USD 1b at the current share-price of USD 370.
  • >99.9% of 500k simulation trials had valid results. Outliers >10.0 IQR are removed.
  • The red box at the bottom shows the probability of loss, when the current share-price is USD 370.
2024-10-22T09:44:11.182060 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.9.2, https://matplotlib.org/ -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% Return on Issuance (ROIS) for Buyer SimSim.Run - Oct 22-2024 (UTC) Ulta Beauty / High Earnings Growth 5Y Share Issuance for Cash Payment (Model SI-CASH) Prob Loss: 17% Normal Mean 38.7% / Std 48% Kernel Density Estimate (KDE)
  • This histogram shows the Return on Issuance (ROIS) for the buyer of the new shares, when making a share issuance for USD 1b at the current share-price of USD 370.
  • >99.9% of 500k simulation trials had valid results. Outliers >10.0 IQR are removed.
  • The red box at the bottom shows the probability of loss, when the current share-price is USD 370.
2024-10-22T09:44:12.790157 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.9.2, https://matplotlib.org/ 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 Current Share-Price for Company A -7.5% -5% -2.5% 0% 2.5% 5% 7.5% 10% Return on Intrinsic Value (ROIV) for Company A SimSim.Run - Oct 22-2024 (UTC) Ulta Beauty / High Earnings Growth 5Y Share Issuance for Cash Payment (Model SI-CASH) Prob Loss: 85%
  • This 2D histogram shows how different share-prices at the time of the share issuance, would impact the Return on Intrinsic Value (ROIV) for the current shareholders, when making a share issuance for USD 1b.
  • 100% of 500k simulation trials had valid results. Outliers >10.0 IQR are removed.
  • ROIV is invalid when the intrinsic value is zero or negative. ROIS also works in those cases.
  • The x-axis shows a range of share-prices around the current share-price of USD 370, which is marked as a dashed blue line.
  • The y-axis shows the Return on Intrinsic Value (ROIV) for the current shareholders.
  • The red box at the bottom shows the probability of loss, if the share issuance is made at the current share-price of USD 370.
2024-10-22T09:44:14.684555 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.9.2, https://matplotlib.org/ 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 Current Share-Price for Company A -800% -600% -400% -200% 0% Return on Issuance (ROIS) for Company A SimSim.Run - Oct 22-2024 (UTC) Ulta Beauty / High Earnings Growth 5Y Share Issuance for Cash Payment (Model SI-CASH) Prob Loss: 85%
  • This 2D histogram shows how different share-prices at the time of the share issuance, would impact the Return on Issuance (ROIS) for the current shareholders, when making a share issuance for USD 1b.
  • >99.9% of 500k simulation trials had valid results. Outliers >10.0 IQR are removed.
  • The x-axis shows a range of share-prices around the current share-price of USD 370, which is marked as a dashed blue line.
  • The y-axis shows the Return on Issuance (ROIS) for the current shareholders.
  • The red box at the bottom shows the probability of loss, if the share issuance is made at the current share-price of USD 370.
2024-10-22T09:44:16.602335 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.9.2, https://matplotlib.org/ 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 Current Share-Price for Company A 0% 200% 400% 600% 800% Return on Issuance (ROIS) for Buyer SimSim.Run - Oct 22-2024 (UTC) Ulta Beauty / High Earnings Growth 5Y Share Issuance for Cash Payment (Model SI-CASH) Prob Loss: 17%
  • This 2D histogram shows how different share-prices at the time of the share issuance, would impact the Return on Issuance (ROIS) for the buyer of the new shares, when making a share issuance for USD 1b.
  • >99.9% of 500k simulation trials had valid results. Outliers >10.0 IQR are removed.
  • The x-axis shows a range of share-prices around the current share-price of USD 370, which is marked as a dashed blue line.
  • The y-axis shows the Return on Issuance (ROIS) for the buyer of the new shares.
  • The red box at the bottom shows the probability of loss, if the share issuance is made at the current share-price of USD 370.