This model simulates the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of a company
to long-term shareholders, where the excess cash and all future earnings
are assumed to be paid out as dividends.

The future share-prices are simulated using P/S (Price-To-Sales) ratios
so the earnings can be zero or negative.

The IRR is the discount rate that makes the Present Value of the future
dividends and share-price equal to the current share-price. The IRR models are
somewhat finicky with regard to the user-input and cannot always find the IRR.

Earnings simulated from historical Net Profit Margin (2011-2023) and recent sales (2022-2023).

Earnings lowered by USD 100m for first 4 years to repay debt.

P/S ratio low in years 1-4 (2017-2023), full range in years 5-10 (2011-2023).

This plot shows the probability distributions that are common for all
simulation years.

This plot shows the probability distributions for individual
simulation years.

The dashed blue lines show the median P/S ratios calculated from
the simulated Sales in each year, and the current Market-Cap (current
share-price X number of shares) minus the Excess Cash. This lets you
easily see if there is likely going to be a future loss or gain from
re-valuation of the stock's P/S ratio.

This violin-plot shows the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for
investment periods between 1-10 years, when the current share-price
is USD 10.

Out of 100k simulation trials >99.9% had valid results. Outliers >9.2 IQR are removed.

If there are losses in some simulations, then the red boxes on the bottom
show the probability of loss for each future year.

This 2D histogram shows how different share-prices would impact the
Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for all investment periods between
1-10 years.

Out of 100k simulation trials 99.1% had valid results. Outliers >9.2 IQR are removed.

The x-axis shows a range of share-prices around the current share-price
of USD 10, which is marked as a dashed
blue line.

The red box at the bottom shows the probability of loss if the current
share-price is USD 10, when considering
all investment periods between 1-10 years.