Sally Beauty Holdings / Realistic / No-Growth

Internal Rate of Return of Stock using Terminal Values (Model IRR‑STK‑TV)

@SimSim 6 months ago 33 Views

This model simulates the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of a company to long-term shareholders, where the excess cash and all future earnings are assumed to be paid out as dividends.

This model does NOT simulate future share-prices. Instead the simulated earnings for the final year are assumed to grow forever so they are used to calculate Terminal Values. If you want to simulate future share-prices, then you should use another model instead.

The IRR is the discount rate that makes the Present Value equal to the current share-price. The IRR models are somewhat finicky with regard to the user-input and cannot always find the IRR.

Docs Related Models

Keywords: DEMO SBH

Earnings simulated from historical Net Profit Margin (2011-2023) and recent sales (2022-2023).
Earnings lowered by USD 100m for first 4 years to repay debt.

Current Share-Price

Current Shares

Currency

Excess Cash

This plot shows the probability distributions for the Terminal Growth-Rate and Tax-Rate on Dividends.

This plot shows the probability distributions for individual simulation years.

This histogram shows the simulated Internal Rate of Return (IRR), when the current share-price is USD 10.
Out of 500k simulation trials 100% had valid results. Outliers >4.0 IQR are removed.

This 2D histogram shows how different share-prices would impact the Internal Rate of Return (IRR).
Out of 500k simulation trials 100% had valid results. Outliers >4.0 IQR are removed.

The x-axis shows a range of prices around the current share-price of USD 10, which is marked as a dashed blue line.

The red box at the bottom shows the probability of loss if the current share-price is USD 10.

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{"constant": "17.73%", "interpolate": true, "normal_mean": "17.73%", "normal_std": "2.1185%", "selected": "user_data", "uniform_hi": "22.651%", "uniform_lo": "9.4856%", "user_data": "9.5489% ; 0%\n9.6831% ; 0.001628%\n9.8174% ; 0.002871%\n9.9517% ; 0.004772%\n10.086% ; 0.007888%\n10.22% ; 0.01287%\n10.355% ; 0.0202%\n10.489% ; 0.0302%\n10.623% ; 0.04325%\n10.757% ; 0.05982%\n10.892% ; 0.08039%\n11.026% ; 0.1054%\n11.16% ; 0.135%\n11.294% ; 0.169%\n11.429% ; 0.2058%\n11.563% ; 0.2421%\n11.697% ; 0.275%\n11.832% ; 0.3039%\n11.966% ; 0.3296%\n12.1% ; 0.3515%\n12.234% ; 0.3665%\n12.369% ; 0.373%\n12.503% ; 0.373%\n12.637% ; 0.3706%\n12.772% ; 0.3673%\n12.906% ; 0.3629%\n13.04% ; 0.3578%\n13.174% ; 0.355%\n13.309% ; 0.3592%\n13.443% ; 0.3735%\n13.577% ; 0.3974%\n13.711% ; 0.4285%\n13.846% ; 0.4661%\n13.98% ; 0.5099%\n14.114% ; 0.5574%\n14.249% ; 0.6032%\n14.383% ; 0.6416%\n14.517% ; 0.6691%\n14.651% ; 0.6866%\n14.786% ; 0.6995%\n14.92% ; 0.712%\n15.054% ; 0.7242%\n15.189% ; 0.7342%\n15.323% ; 0.7437%\n15.457% ; 0.7558%\n15.591% ; 0.7714%\n15.726% ; 0.7893%\n15.86% ; 0.8116%\n15.994% ; 0.8452%\n16.128% ; 0.8976%\n16.263% ; 0.9709%\n16.397% ; 1.063%\n16.531% ; 1.172%\n16.666% ; 1.303%\n16.8% ; 1.458%\n16.934% ; 1.634%\n17.068% ; 1.821%\n17.203% ; 2.01%\n17.337% ; 2.201%\n17.471% ; 2.398%\n17.606% ; 2.604%\n17.74% ; 2.809%\n17.874% ; 2.995%\n18.008% ; 3.152%\n18.143% ; 3.28%\n18.277% ; 3.385%\n18.411% ; 3.465%\n18.546% ; 3.508%\n18.68% ; 3.508%\n18.814% ; 3.461%\n18.948% ; 3.37%\n19.083% ; 3.241%\n19.217% ; 3.081%\n19.351% ; 2.903%\n19.485% ; 2.71%\n19.62% ; 2.499%\n19.754% ; 2.267%\n19.888% ; 2.025%\n20.023% ; 1.789%\n20.157% ; 1.568%\n20.291% ; 1.363%\n20.425% ; 1.169%\n20.56% ; 0.9852%\n20.694% ; 0.8118%\n20.828% ; 0.6526%\n20.963% ; 0.5124%\n21.097% ; 0.3952%\n21.231% ; 0.3004%\n21.365% ; 0.2237%\n21.5% ; 0.1611%\n21.634% ; 0.1111%\n21.768% ; 0.07321%\n21.902% ; 0.04625%\n22.037% ; 0.02807%\n22.171% ; 0.01624%\n22.305% ; 0.008842%\n22.44% ; 0.004499%\n22.574% ; 0.002151%\n22.708% ; 0.000971%\n22.842% ; 0%\n"}