Sally Beauty Holdings / Realistic / No-Growth

Internal Rate of Return of Stock using Terminal Values (Model IRR‑STK‑TV)

@SimSim 4 months ago 32 Views

This model simulates the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of a company to long-term shareholders, where the excess cash and all future earnings are assumed to be paid out as dividends.

This model does NOT simulate future share-prices. Instead the simulated earnings for the final year are assumed to grow forever so they are used to calculate Terminal Values. If you want to simulate future share-prices, then you should use another model instead.

The IRR is the discount rate that makes the Present Value equal to the current share-price. The IRR models are somewhat finicky with regard to the user-input and cannot always find the IRR.

Docs Related Models

Keywords: DEMO SBH

  • Earnings simulated from historical Net Profit Margin (2011-2023) and recent sales (2022-2023).
  • Earnings lowered by USD 100m for first 4 years to repay debt.

2024-05-16T09:27:00.572857 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.8.4, https://matplotlib.org/ -5% -2.5% 0% 2.5% 5% Terminal Growth -5% -2.5% 0% 2.5% 5% Tax-Rate Dividends
This plot shows the probability distributions for the Terminal Growth-Rate and Tax-Rate on Dividends.
2024-05-16T09:27:02.797204 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.8.4, https://matplotlib.org/ 50m 100m 150m 200m Year 1 Earnings 150m 200m 250m 300m Year 4 (Same as previous) Earnings Year 2 (Same as previous) Year 5 50m 100m 150m 200m Year 3 (Same as previous) 150m 200m 250m 300m Year 6 (Same as previous)
This plot shows the probability distributions for individual simulation years.
2024-05-16T09:26:57.661585 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.8.4, https://matplotlib.org/ 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% Internal Rate of Return (IRR) SimSim.Run - May 16-2024 (UTC) Sally Beauty Holdings / Realistic / No-Growth Internal Rate of Return of Stock using Terminal Values (Model IRR-STK-TV) Normal Mean 17.7% / Std 2.1% Kernel Density Estimate (KDE)
  • This histogram shows the simulated Internal Rate of Return (IRR), when the current share-price is USD 10.
  • Out of 500k simulation trials 100% had valid results. Outliers >4.0 IQR are removed.
2024-05-16T09:26:59.275443 image/svg+xml Matplotlib v3.8.4, https://matplotlib.org/ 6 8 10 12 14 Current Share-Price 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Internal Rate of Return (IRR) SimSim.Run - May 16-2024 (UTC) Sally Beauty Holdings / Realistic / No-Growth Internal Rate of Return of Stock using Terminal Values (Model IRR-STK-TV) Prob Loss: 0.0%
  • This 2D histogram shows how different share-prices would impact the Internal Rate of Return (IRR).
  • Out of 500k simulation trials 100% had valid results. Outliers >4.0 IQR are removed.
  • The x-axis shows a range of prices around the current share-price of USD 10, which is marked as a dashed blue line.
  • The red box at the bottom shows the probability of loss if the current share-price is USD 10.